For politicos, April really is the cruellest month. There is always a set of elections in the first week of May and so the fourth month of the year is always spent on the doorstep somewhere. Easter bank holidays are less about long lie-ins and more about pounding the pavement ahead of election day.
This year is no different with an interesting (if diminished) set of local elections. Several local council elections for 2025 (such as in Essex) have been delayed until 2026 due to local government restructuring to create more unitary authorities next year. Nonetheless, this year’s elections are important individual contests in their own right, and will play an significant role in setting the political narratives for the various parties in the months ahead. Political momentum gained or lost locally can have consequences nationally, including for future political strategic decisions from party leaders.
Key battlegrounds to watch in the May 2025 elections
There is a real mixed bag on 1st May. There are plenty of southern county council elections such as in Hertfordshire, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, Cornwall, and Wiltshire. Some interesting mayoral elections in Lincolnshire, Hull and west Yorkshire and the west of England. These elections will be closely watched for any signs of a shift in party support. And all eyes in Westminster will be on Runcorn and Helsby in Cheshire for a close parliamentary by-election.
Party strategies: How the Conservatives, Labour and Reform are approaching the vote
The Conservatives face a very tough night (even if their expectation management game has gone into overdrive) and Tories will be aware that their electoral pain didn’t end on July 4th 2024.
Many of the contested council seats were won when Boris Johnson was at his electoral zenith and Reform had barely been established, so the Tories are likely to lose hundreds of seats.
Whitehouse Associate Consultant Kaya Gadhia worked as Campaign Assistant to the Conservative candidate in Hendon during the 2024 general election and said: “I saw how many voters felt disconnected from the national messaging and there could be more of this in the 2025 local elections. The Conservative Party’s local elections strategy will require a more nuanced approach to unite the right – recognising local concerns, tailoring messaging accordingly, and fostering stronger strategic collaboration between central office and constituency teams.” The Conservative Party local elections strategy will focus on managing expectations.
Labour has had a rocky start to government and is keeping a relatively low profile in the run-up to their first electoral test since Starmer walked into Downing Street. Former Labour adviser, Max Wilson, said: “Labour seems largely content to let the Tories and Reform slug it out whilst they continue with their message that they are still embedding change; a message that loses more of its lustre the longer they are in government. Although Reform is seen as a threat to Labour and is taken seriously by government strategists, at this stage, the threat lies more with losing voters to Farage’s party rather than seats, and the view is that they are still a bigger headache for the Conservatives.”
The Reform party has huge ambitions for the local elections and to keep up their momentum, they need to have a good night on 1st May. They are feeling confident for the mayoralties of Lincolnshire and Hull, and will hope to win hundreds of council seats – otherwise the narrative could change to how Nigel Farage’s latest party has once again reached its electoral ceiling. Whitehouse Associate Consultant, Emily Walker, was working as Parliamentary Assistant to Anna Firth MP in 2024 and said: “At the outset of our campaign in Southend West and Leigh, we had serious concerns that canvassing would reveal a significant shift from lifelong Tory voters to Reform, particularly after Farage announced his decision to stand in Clacton. Reform secured 17.6% of the vote in Southend — well above our canvassing predictions – and split the right-wing vote. Canvassing data plays a crucial role in shaping a candidate’s strategy, campaigning priorities and messaging, and as we approach the local elections, Reform voters should not be sidelined or underestimated.”
What the local election results will mean for future political narratives
The individual results of these elections will soon be forgotten, but the political narrative and impact will be felt long after. Keep an eye out for where the Tory votes went – the media narrative will focus on a Reform breakthrough and there will be loud calls for the Tories to shift right (which will be welcomed by Labour). And it will be interesting to see if the Lib Dem threat is an even bigger challenge to the Conservatives, particularly in traditional Tory heartlands like Oxfordshire, Devon and Cornwall.
Ironically, success for Reform at this stage in the general election cycle could actually benefit both Labour and the Conservatives. If Farage’s party ends up governing in some local areas, it would be forced to build a track record — one that could be scrutinised and attacked in 2029, potentially leaving disillusioned voters viewing them as just another failed political project. With Labour pinning everything on ‘delivery’ of tangible improvements on key voter issues, they will hope to be seen as the only grown-ups in the political room.
How businesses and organisations can prepare for political change
The results of the 2025 local elections will help shape the political and regulatory landscape in the months and years ahead. Businesses, charities, and organisations that rely on effective public affairs strategies must be proactive, not reactive.
Understanding shifting political dynamics at the local and national level is essential to anticipate new opportunities — and mitigate potential risks. Engaging early with local authorities, newly elected officials, and political stakeholders can help organisations influence policy, secure funding, and protect their interests.
At Whitehouse Communications, a leading public affairs consultancy, we work closely with clients to develop tailored engagement strategies that adapt to political change. Our expert teams monitor political developments, analyse trends, and provide actionable intelligence to ensure you stay ahead of the curve.
Explore our Case Studies to see how we have helped organisations navigate the political landscape through our public affairs and political strategy services. To learn how we can support your public affairs strategy in a changing environment, get in touch with our team today.
