Jenrick or Badenoch? What the Tory leadership race means for the future of the party

Following the shock exit of James Cleverly which provoked audible gasps among MPs, all eyes are now on Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch as they reach the final stage of the Conservative leadership race. The pair attempted to woo Tory members in a televised debated on GB news on Thursday, and now wait with bated breath for the winner to be announced on 2nd November.

Although Jenrick has been regarded as a centrist, both candidates have promised to stay firmly on the right of the party if elected. Jenrick has committed to withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in an effort to solve the migration crisis and has also promised to oppose plans for net-zero. Badenoch has taken a more ideological approach, focusing on cultural war issues and institutional reform which she hopes will realign the party to its traditional values.

However, the lack of a centrist candidate, which probably came as a result of poorly executed tactical voting by MPs, has raised concerns. In particular, the Tory Reform Group refused to endorse either of the final two candidates and some members have even threatened to spoil their ballots come 2nd November.  Sir Roger Gale, former Conservative Chairman, went as far as saying that members have been disenfranchised. Centrists are also concerned that stringent policies on immigration and culture wars are mainly aimed at countering votes lost to Reform UK in July which could repel other prospective Tory voters further, particularly those that went Lib Dem. This simmering discontent does not bode well for the leadership of either candidate and threatens to permanently fragment the party.

Observing from across the chamber, the government hopes that the lack of a credible opposition might take Labour into a second term. In a jokey reference to the government’s donations row, a Labour MP reportedly asked: ‘Does the Tory leadership result need to be declared as a gift?’, although Starmer should be minded not to rest on his laurels after a shaky first 100 days in office.

It remains to be seen whether either candidate has the momentum to pose a real threat to Labour. Badenoch is now the predicted favourite to win, but her lead is narrow. The Guardian reports that Tory switchers are more drawn to her ‘no nonsense’ approach, whilst Jenrick would offer ‘more of the same’. However, some are concerned about her credibility as leader. Badenoch has previously been accused of creating an intimidating and bullying environment when she was Secretary of State for Business and Trade and her comments about maternity pay have landed her in hot water.

Having worked at CCHQ from January to July, I noticed a growing sense of unease as the weeks went by as it felt as if the office itself was resting on shaky foundations. The direction of leadership seemed confused at times and there was a lack of communication between departments. I also noticed an absence of team spirit across the office with attempts to boost morale being met with a jeer. It surprised me that there was a distinct lack of preparation for the announcement of an early election, despite many knowing in advance. This leads me to think that for the Tories to bounce back, the reform of the party needs to be more than cosmetic, and the future leader faces a tough task.